What is your Financial Speed? A Guide to Retirement Planning

What is your Financial Speed?

A GUIDE TO RETIREMENT PLANNING

ERICK ARNETT

Updated and Expanded for 2025

Introduction

Why Plan for Retirement?

Planning for retirement has never been more crucial than it is in 2025. As life expectancies increase and traditional retirement safety nets become less reliable, individuals must take a more active role in securing their financial futures. The landscape of retirement has transformed dramatically over the past few decades, presenting both new challenges and opportunities.

Today's retirees face a complex array of considerations: market volatility, inflation risks, changing tax laws, healthcare costs, and the need to generate income that may need to last 30+ years. A comprehensive retirement plan is essential to navigate these challenges successfully and enjoy the retirement you've worked hard to achieve.

Throughout this book, we'll explore strategies that can help you develop a robust financial plan that addresses these modern retirement challenges. By understanding your unique "Financial Speed" – the pace at which your assets need to grow to sustain your desired lifestyle – you can make informed decisions that align with your goals and risk tolerance.

The Uncertainty of Pension and Social Security Benefits

For generations, Americans relied on a three-legged stool of retirement: employer pensions, Social Security, and personal savings. Today, that stool is increasingly unstable, with two of the three legs becoming less reliable.

According to the latest Social Security Board of Trustees report, the combined trust funds for Social Security benefits are projected to be depleted by 2033, a year later than previous projections. Without legislative changes, beneficiaries would face an automatic 17% reduction in benefits once reserves are exhausted.

The worker-to-beneficiary ratio has drastically changed over time. When Social Security began, there were 16 workers supporting each beneficiary. Currently, that ratio has fallen to 2.8 workers per beneficiary and is projected to decline to 2.1 by 2035. This demographic shift creates significant funding challenges for the program.

Traditional pension plans continue their steady decline. In 1980, 38% of private sector workers were covered by defined benefit pension plans. By 2025, that figure has plummeted to less than 15%. The responsibility for retirement funding has largely shifted from employers to employees, making personal planning all the more critical.

Unforeseen Medical Expenses

Healthcare costs represent one of the most significant and unpredictable expenses in retirement. According to studies, the average 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 will need approximately $315,000 in after-tax savings just to cover healthcare costs in retirement, not including long-term care expenses.

Medicare, while providing a foundation of coverage, only pays for about 50% of total healthcare expenses for seniors. Most retirees need supplemental insurance to cover gaps, costing an average of $150-$200 per month per person in 2025.

Long-term care presents an even greater financial risk. According to Genworth data, the 2025 average cost of a year in an assisted living community is $72,924, and a nursing home will average $131,583 annually for a private room. With approximately 70% of people over 65 eventually needing some form of long-term care, this represents a significant planning consideration.

Important Note: Medicare does not cover most long-term care needs, and Medicaid coverage typically requires spending down most assets, making advance planning critical.

Strategies such as health savings accounts (HSAs), long-term care insurance, and specific investment allocations can help mitigate these risks, but they must be implemented well before retirement for maximum effectiveness.

Estate Planning

Estate planning is a critical component of comprehensive retirement planning that ensures your assets are distributed according to your wishes and minimizes tax implications for your beneficiaries.

A Trust

Trusts have become increasingly popular estate planning tools for people of various wealth levels, not just the ultra-wealthy. They provide numerous benefits:

  • Avoiding probate, which can be time-consuming and expensive
  • Maintaining privacy regarding your assets and beneficiaries
  • Providing control over how and when beneficiaries receive assets
  • Protection against creditors and potential lawsuits
  • Management of assets if you become incapacitated

Roth Assets

Roth IRAs and Roth 401(k)s have become powerful estate planning tools due to their tax advantages:

  • Tax-free growth and withdrawals for both you and your beneficiaries
  • No required minimum distributions (RMDs) during your lifetime
  • Greater flexibility for your beneficiaries in managing inherited assets

The SECURE Act 2.0 made important changes to retirement plan inheritance rules. Most non-spouse beneficiaries must now empty inherited retirement accounts within 10 years rather than stretching distributions over their lifetimes. This change makes Roth conversions an even more valuable strategy for many retirees.

Flexibility in Dealing with Changes

Building flexibility into your retirement and estate plan is essential given how frequently tax laws and regulations change. Strategies that provide adaptability include:

  • Diversifying across different account types (traditional, Roth, taxable)
  • Using flexible trust provisions that allow trustees to adapt to changing circumstances
  • Regularly reviewing and updating estate planning documents
  • Working with advisors who stay current on regulatory changes

Remember that estate planning is not a one-time event but an ongoing process that should be reviewed regularly, especially after major life events or tax law changes.

Chapter One: Retiring in Our New Reality

Retirement of the Past

The traditional concept of retirement that emerged in the mid-20th century was fundamentally different from what today's retirees experience. For previous generations, retirement planning was relatively straightforward:

  • Work for a single employer for 30-40 years
  • Receive a defined benefit pension based on salary and years of service
  • Collect Social Security as a supplemental income source
  • Rely on modest personal savings
  • Often retire with a paid-off mortgage
  • Typically plan for 10-15 years of retirement given shorter life expectancies

This system provided security and predictability for millions of Americans. Companies bore the investment risk for pension funds, and retirees could count on regular monthly pension checks regardless of market performance.

Retirement Today

The retirement landscape of 2025 bears little resemblance to that of previous generations. Today's retirees and pre-retirees face a fundamentally different set of challenges:

  • Multiple career changes and employers throughout working life
  • Self-directed retirement accounts (401(k)s, IRAs) replacing pensions
  • Investment decision-making responsibility shifted to individuals
  • Longer retirements (potentially 25-30+ years) due to increased longevity
  • Rising healthcare costs not fully covered by Medicare
  • Uncertainty about Social Security's long-term sustainability
  • Persistently low interest rates challenging income generation
  • Higher debt levels entering retirement (mortgages, student loans)

This shift has created what many experts call the "retirement income crisis." According to a 2025 retirement survey, 52% of Americans fear running out of money in retirement more than they fear death itself. This reality demands a more sophisticated and personalized approach to retirement planning.

401(K) Programs

The 401(k) plan has become the dominant retirement vehicle for American workers. Named after a section of the Internal Revenue Code, these plans were never originally intended to be the primary retirement system for Americans but rather a supplemental savings option.

As of 2025, 401(k) plans hold approximately $8.7 trillion in assets, representing about 20% of the $41.2 trillion in total U.S. retirement assets. While these plans offer valuable benefits, they also come with significant challenges:

Advantages of 401(k) Plans

  • Tax-deferred growth on contributions and earnings
  • Potential employer matching contributions (essentially "free money")
  • Higher contribution limits than IRAs ($24,000 for those under 50 in 2025)
  • Additional catch-up contributions for those 50+ ($7,500 in 2025)
  • Portability when changing employers

Challenges of 401(k) Plans

  • Investment responsibility falls entirely on the employee
  • Most participants lack investment expertise or guidance
  • Contribution rates often insufficient for adequate retirement funding
  • Market volatility can significantly impact account balances near retirement
  • Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) starting at age 73 (as of 2025)
  • All withdrawals taxed as ordinary income

The SECURE Act 2.0 made several important changes to retirement plans, including increasing the RMD age from 72 to 73 beginning in 2023, and it will further increase to age 75 by 2033. This provides additional flexibility for retirement planning, but also creates complexity in determining optimal withdrawal strategies.

Pension Plans are Becoming Extinct

Traditional defined benefit pension plans have experienced a dramatic decline over the past few decades. In 1980, 38% of private-sector workers participated in pension plans. By 2025, that number has fallen to less than 15%, with most remaining plans in government sectors.

Several factors have contributed to this decline:

  • Increased regulatory requirements and costs for employers
  • Financial pressure from pension funding obligations
  • Shift toward global competition requiring cost cutting
  • Changing workforce mobility patterns
  • Longer life expectancies increasing plan liabilities

Even among companies still offering pension plans, many have frozen benefits, meaning current employees stop accruing new benefits. This further emphasizes the need for individuals to take control of their retirement planning rather than relying on employer benefits.

Baby Boomers in Retirement

The retirement of the Baby Boomer generation continues to reshape the demographic and economic landscape of the United States. As of 2025, we've reached what retirement experts call "Peak 65" - the year when more Americans will turn 65 than any other year in history. Approximately 4.2 million Americans will reach traditional retirement age in 2025 alone.

Key Baby Boomer retirement statistics for 2025:

  • Approximately 11,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 each day
  • By the end of 2025, over 75% of the 76 million Baby Boomers will be age 65 or older
  • By 2030, all surviving Baby Boomers will be at least 65
  • Retirees now comprise approximately 22% of the U.S. population (up from 16% in 2020)

This demographic shift has profound implications for retirement planning, as it puts pressure on social systems and fundamentally changes the worker-to-retiree ratio that supports Social Security and Medicare.

Perhaps more concerning is the retirement preparedness of this generation. According to recent data:

  • The median retirement savings for Baby Boomers is approximately $202,000
  • Only 27% of Baby Boomers believe they have enough money saved for retirement
  • 41% of Baby Boomers have no retirement savings at all
  • 71% of retirees carry some form of debt through their retirement years

This retirement savings shortfall is creating challenges for many Boomers, with 55% delaying retirement and one-third planning to work at least part-time during their "retirement" years.

Rising Retirement Age

The concept of retirement at age 65 originated in the 1930s when Social Security was established. At that time, life expectancy was significantly lower, and most people who reached retirement age could expect to live only a few years in retirement. Today's reality is dramatically different.

The average retirement age has been steadily increasing:

  • In 1991, the average retirement age was 57
  • In 2005, it had risen to 60
  • In 2015, it reached 63
  • In 2025, the average effective retirement age is approximately 65.4

Several factors have contributed to this trend:

Factors that have led to a rise in retirement age

  • Increased longevity: A 65-year-old in 2025 can expect to live, on average, until age 87 for women and 84 for men, necessitating larger retirement nest eggs
  • Insufficient savings: Many workers must delay retirement to accumulate adequate resources
  • Social Security incentives: Higher benefits for those who delay claiming until age 70
  • Rising healthcare costs: Working longer provides access to employer-sponsored health insurance
  • Lower physical demands: Many modern jobs can be performed by older workers
  • Psychological benefits: Many choose to work longer for purpose and social connection

The Decline of Health Insurance

Another factor pushing retirement ages higher is the erosion of employer-provided retiree health benefits. In 1988, 66% of large firms offered retiree health coverage. By 2025, that figure has plummeted to just 18%. This creates a critical "coverage gap" for those who retire before Medicare eligibility begins at 65.

For early retirees, health insurance options include:

  • COBRA coverage (typically limited to 18 months and often expensive)
  • Affordable Care Act marketplace plans
  • Spouse's employer coverage
  • Private insurance (often prohibitively expensive for older adults)

This healthcare consideration has become one of the primary factors in retirement timing decisions, with many choosing to work until at least age 65 specifically to maintain employer health coverage until Medicare eligibility.

Chapter Two: The Risk of Increasing Tax Rates

High Taxes

Tax planning is a critical yet often overlooked aspect of retirement preparation. Many retirees are surprised to find their effective tax rates higher than anticipated, creating a significant drag on their retirement income.

Current tax rates for 2025 are as follows:

Tax Rate Single Filers Married Filing Jointly
10% $0 to $11,925 $0 to $23,850
12% $11,926 to $48,475 $23,851 to $96,950
22% $48,476 to $103,350 $96,951 to $206,700
24% $103,351 to $197,300 $206,701 to $394,600
32% $197,301 to $250,525 $394,601 to $501,050
35% $250,526 to $613,875 $501,051 to $733,650
37% Over $613,875 Over $733,650

Many experts believe these rates are likely to increase in the future due to several factors:

  • Growing national debt requiring higher tax revenue
  • Increasing costs of Social Security and Medicare as Baby Boomers retire
  • Many current tax provisions are scheduled to expire after 2025
  • Historical tax rates have often been significantly higher than current levels

Proper tax planning strategies can help mitigate these risks and may include:

  • Roth conversions during lower-income years
  • Tax-loss harvesting in taxable accounts
  • Strategic withdrawal planning from different account types
  • Charitable giving strategies
  • Tax-efficient investment placement

National Debt

The U.S. national debt has reached unprecedented levels, creating significant implications for future tax policy and retirement planning. As of May 2025, the total national debt stands at approximately $36.2 trillion, with debt held by the public at $28.9 trillion.

On a per-capita basis, every American citizen's share of the national debt is approximately $106,110 – a figure that has more than doubled since 2010. For a typical family of four, this represents over $424,000 in federal debt obligation.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that without significant policy changes, the federal debt held by the public will reach approximately 116% of GDP by 2035, exceeding the previous record set just after World War II.

Rising interest rates have compounded this problem. Interest payments on the federal debt now exceed $1 trillion annually, representing nearly 20% of federal tax revenue. This growing interest burden reduces the government's ability to fund other priorities without either raising taxes or further increasing debt.

The implications for retirees and pre-retirees include:

  • Increased pressure to raise tax rates
  • Potential reductions in retirement benefits
  • Reduced economic growth from debt service burden
  • Increased inflation risk
  • Intergenerational wealth transfer concerns

Prudent retirement planning should include strategies to address these fiscal realities, such as tax diversification, inflation-protected investments, and appropriate global diversification.

The Cost of Goods and Services

Inflation represents one of the most significant threats to retirement security. Even moderate inflation can substantially erode purchasing power over a retirement that may last 25-30 years or longer.

As of April 2025, the annual inflation rate in the United States stands at 2.3%, which appears moderate compared to the elevated rates seen in 2021-2022. However, retirees typically experience higher effective inflation rates than the general population due to their consumption patterns.

Impact of 2.5% Inflation Over Time: $1,000 today will have the purchasing power of just $610 in 20 years and $477 in 30 years.

Of particular concern for retirees are categories that have consistently outpaced general inflation:

  • Healthcare: Medical care inflation has averaged 3.5% annually over the past decade
  • Housing: Despite recent moderation, housing costs have increased significantly
  • Food: Grocery prices have seen substantial increases since 2020
  • Long-term care: Costs increasing at approximately 5% annually

Strategies to address inflation risk include:

  • Maintaining an appropriate allocation to growth investments throughout retirement
  • Utilizing inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and I Bonds
  • Considering annuities with inflation adjustments
  • Investment in assets with inflation-hedging properties (certain real estate, commodities)
  • Planning for increased expenses in later retirement years, particularly for healthcare

A Decreased Standard of Living

The combined effects of tax uncertainty, national debt, and inflation create significant challenges for maintaining your standard of living throughout retirement. Without appropriate planning and adjustment strategies, many retirees find themselves having to reduce their lifestyle or return to work.

According to the most recent retirement confidence survey, 41% of current retirees report spending more than they had anticipated before retirement, primarily due to:

  • Underestimating healthcare expenses
  • Supporting adult children or aging parents
  • Housing costs exceeding projections
  • Unexpected home repairs or updates
  • Travel and leisure spending in early retirement

The average annual spending for retired households in 2024 (latest data available) was $54,975, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, this average masks significant variation based on health status, geographic location, and lifestyle choices.

Key Finding: 55% of retirees who experienced a decreased standard of living attributed it primarily to inadequate planning for taxes, inflation, and healthcare costs.

Preventive strategies to maintain your desired standard of living include:

  • Developing a detailed retirement budget that accounts for both essential and discretionary spending
  • Building in significant buffers for healthcare and inflation
  • Creating diverse income sources with different tax treatments
  • Maintaining flexibility to adjust spending during market downturns
  • Regular review and adjustment of your financial plan throughout retirement

Beyond financial considerations, maintaining strong social connections, physical health, and purpose can significantly enhance quality of life even when financial constraints arise.

Chapter Three: Income Planning in Retirement

Decide When You Want to Retire

The decision about when to retire is one of the most important financial choices you'll make. The timing significantly impacts both the amount you need to save and how long those savings must last. Several factors should influence this decision:

Financial Considerations:

  • Social Security timing: Benefits can be claimed as early as 62 or delayed until 70, with permanent reductions for early claiming or increases for delayed claiming
  • Pension availability: Some pensions provide better benefits after certain age or service milestones
  • Healthcare coverage: Medicare eligibility begins at 65, creating potential coverage gaps for early retirees
  • Retirement account rules: Penalty-free withdrawals generally begin at 59½, while RMDs now begin at 73
  • Savings adequacy: Each additional year of work both increases savings and reduces the number of years those savings must last

Non-Financial Considerations:

  • Health status: Current health and family history
  • Job satisfaction: Enjoyment and fulfillment from current work
  • Personal goals: Travel, hobbies, family time, etc.
  • Spouse's retirement timing: Coordination with partner's plans
  • Purpose and identity: Plan for meaningful activities in retirement

Important Research Finding: Each year of delayed retirement can increase retirement income by approximately 7-8% through a combination of increased savings, delayed withdrawals, and higher Social Security benefits.

The increasingly popular concept of a "phased retirement" allows for a gradual transition, combining part-time work with increased leisure. This approach can provide both financial and psychological benefits, helping to ease the transition while extending the viability of retirement resources.

Decide Your Annual Income During Retirement

Determining how much income you'll need in retirement requires careful consideration of your expected lifestyle, health status, and financial goals. While rules of thumb can provide a starting point, a personalized analysis yields more accurate planning.

Common Income Replacement Ratios:

  • 70-80%: Traditional rule of thumb for pre-retirement income replacement
  • 55-65%: May be sufficient for those with paid-off mortgages and modest lifestyle
  • 85-100%: Often necessary for those with significant travel plans, healthcare needs, or support for family members

Factors That Increase Retirement Income Needs:

  • Mortgage or rent payments continuing into retirement
  • Extensive travel or expensive hobbies
  • Healthcare issues requiring additional services
  • Supporting adult children or aging parents
  • Living in a high-cost area
  • Retiring at a younger age (extending retirement duration)

Factors That May Decrease Retirement Income Needs:

  • Elimination of work-related expenses (commuting, professional clothing, etc.)
  • Paid-off mortgage and reduced housing costs
  • Reduced income taxes (particularly if income is lower)
  • Downsizing to a smaller home or lower-cost area
  • Elimination of retirement savings (no longer saving for retirement)

A more precise approach involves creating a detailed retirement budget that categorizes expenses as essential (housing, food, healthcare) versus discretionary (travel, entertainment, gifts). This distinction allows for better planning and potential adjustments during market downturns.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, in 2024, the average annual expenditure for households headed by someone aged 65 or older was $54,975. However, this average masks significant variation based on health status, geographic location, and lifestyle choices.

Add the Market Value of Your Investments and Savings

Creating a comprehensive inventory of your financial resources is essential for accurate retirement planning. This inventory should include all assets that can generate retirement income or be liquidated to fund expenses.

Retirement Assets to Include:

  • Qualified retirement accounts: 401(k)s, 403(b)s, 457 plans, traditional IRAs
  • Roth accounts: Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k)s
  • Taxable investment accounts: Brokerage accounts, mutual funds, stocks, bonds
  • Bank accounts: Savings, CDs, money market accounts
  • Pension benefits: Monthly defined benefit amounts and any lump-sum options
  • Social Security: Projected benefits at various claiming ages
  • Annuities: Both immediate and deferred contracts
  • Real estate: Investment properties, potential home equity
  • Business interests: Ownership stakes, expected sale proceeds
  • Other assets: Life insurance cash values, collectibles, expected inheritances

For each asset, note important characteristics that will affect its use in retirement:

  • Tax treatment: Pre-tax, after-tax, tax-free
  • Accessibility: Liquidity constraints, early withdrawal penalties
  • Growth potential: Expected returns based on asset allocation
  • Income generation: Dividend yields, interest rates
  • Required distributions: RMD requirements starting at age 73

The average American approaching retirement has assets distributed across multiple account types, often accumulated through different employers and financial institutions. Consolidating accounts where appropriate can simplify management and improve coordination of your retirement strategy.

2025 Retirement Savings Data: According to updated data, the median retirement savings for households near retirement (age 55-64) is approximately $256,244, while the average is significantly higher at $577,000, indicating a substantial wealth gap.

For many Americans, their home represents their largest asset. Strategic use of home equity through downsizing, relocation, or potentially reverse mortgages can significantly impact retirement security. However, these decisions should be made carefully with consideration of both financial and emotional factors.

Sample Calculation

Understanding how your savings translate to sustainable retirement income is critical for effective planning. Let's walk through a sample calculation to illustrate the process.

Case Study: Jane's Retirement Plan

Background:

  • Age: 62
  • Planned retirement age: 65
  • Current annual income: $90,000
  • Desired retirement income: $72,000 (80% of current income)
  • Expected Social Security at age 67: $30,000 annually
  • Small pension: $6,000 annually
  • Current retirement savings: $750,000
  • Additional savings until retirement: $60,000 ($20,000 annually for 3 years)

Step 1: Calculate the income gap

  • Desired retirement income: $72,000
  • Guaranteed income (Social Security + pension): $36,000
  • Annual income gap: $72,000 - $36,000 = $36,000

Step 2: Project retirement savings at retirement

  • Current savings: $750,000
  • Growth over 3 years (assuming 5% annual return): $868,500
  • Additional contributions with growth: $63,100
  • Projected retirement savings at age 65: $931,600

Step 3: Calculate sustainable withdrawal amount

  • Using a 4% initial withdrawal rate: $931,600 × 0.04 = $37,264
  • This slightly exceeds Jane's income gap of $36,000

Step 4: Adjust for inflation

  • Assuming 2.3% annual inflation
  • Year 1 withdrawal: $37,264
  • Year 2 withdrawal: $38,121
  • Year 3 withdrawal: $39,000
  • And so on...

Step 5: Account for taxes

  • Assuming a 15% effective tax rate on withdrawals
  • Gross withdrawal needed for $36,000 after-tax: $42,350
  • This would increase the required withdrawal rate to approximately 4.5%

Conclusion: Jane's retirement plan appears sustainable, but with limited margin for unexpected expenses. She might consider working slightly longer, reducing retirement expenses, or accepting a slightly higher withdrawal rate with the associated increase in longevity risk.

This example illustrates several key retirement planning principles:

  • The importance of guaranteed income sources in reducing portfolio dependency
  • The impact of even a few additional years of savings
  • The critical role of sustainable withdrawal rates
  • The often-overlooked impact of taxes on withdrawal planning
  • The need to balance financial security with quality of life goals

While this simplified example provides a useful framework, actual retirement planning involves many additional variables and contingencies that should be modeled with more sophisticated tools or with professional assistance.

Keeping Inflation in Check

Inflation represents one of the most significant threats to retirement security over the long term. Even modest inflation rates can substantially erode purchasing power over a retirement that may last 25-30 years.

Current inflation data shows a moderation from the elevated levels seen in 2021-2022. As of April 2025, the annual inflation rate in the United States stands at 2.3%. However, retiree-specific inflation often exceeds the general Consumer Price Index due to higher healthcare costs and other expenses that make up a larger portion of retiree budgets.

Strategies to Combat Inflation in Retirement:

  1. Maintain growth-oriented investments: Even during retirement, a portion of your portfolio should remain invested for growth to outpace inflation over time. Complete avoidance of stocks in favor of fixed-income investments often leads to purchasing power erosion.
  2. Consider inflation-protected securities: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and I Bonds provide explicit inflation protection. While yields are typically lower than conventional bonds, they provide valuable hedging against unexpected inflation increases.
  3. Evaluate inflation-adjusted annuities: Some annuity products offer inflation adjustments, either through fixed percentage increases or CPI-linked adjustments. These features come at a cost but provide valuable inflation protection for essential expenses.
  4. Delay Social Security: Social Security benefits receive annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), making them one of the few guaranteed inflation-adjusted income sources. Delaying benefits increases this inflation-protected income stream.
  5. Strategic allocation to real assets: Certain asset classes have historically provided better inflation hedging, including:
    • Real estate investment trusts (REITs)
    • Commodities
    • Infrastructure investments
    • Certain equities with strong pricing power
  6. Implement a dynamic withdrawal strategy: Rather than automatically increasing withdrawals by inflation each year, consider adjustments based on:
    • Portfolio performance
    • Actual spending needs
    • Economic conditions

Key Insight: Many retirees experience naturally declining real spending as they age, with expenses often peaking in the early "active" retirement years, declining in the middle "regular" retirement years, and then increasing again in later years due to healthcare costs. This natural spending curve can partially offset inflation concerns.

Periodic reassessment of your inflation protection strategy is essential, particularly during periods of changing monetary policy or economic conditions. What works during periods of low inflation may prove insufficient during inflationary spikes.

Chapter Four: Helping Protect Against Market Loss

Lessons from the Best Investors

Successful retirement investing requires applying timeless principles from history's most accomplished investors. These principles become even more critical during the retirement phase when recovery time from market downturns is limited.

Key Lessons from Investment Legends:

  1. Focus on the long term (Benjamin Graham): "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." Retirement is still a long-term proposition, often lasting 25-30+ years.
  2. Diversification is essential (Harry Markowitz): "Don't put all your eggs in one basket." Proper diversification across asset classes, sectors, and geographies remains your best defense against specific risks.
  3. Avoid market timing (John Bogle): "The idea that a bell rings to signal when to get into or out of the market is simply not credible." Studies consistently show that missing just a few of the market's best days can dramatically reduce returns.
  4. Control your emotions (Warren Buffett): "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." The biggest enemy to successful investing is often one's own emotional reactions to market movements.
  5. Understand risk (Peter Lynch): "Know what you own, and why you own it." Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing or why you've made particular investment choices.

The S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 9.72% over the 20 years from 2005 through 2024, despite experiencing two severe bear markets during this period. However, this performance was only achieved by investors who remained fully invested – those who attempted to time the market often realized significantly lower returns.

Help Protect Your Investment

As you approach and enter retirement, investment protection becomes increasingly important. Your time horizon for recovery from significant market downturns is shortened, and the impact of sequence-of-returns risk becomes more pronounced.

Sequence-of-Returns Risk

This risk refers to the potentially devastating impact of experiencing poor market returns in the early years of retirement while simultaneously taking withdrawals. Unlike the accumulation phase where the sequence of returns matters less, the order of returns during withdrawal years can dramatically impact portfolio longevity.

Illustration: Two Retirees with Identical Average Returns

Consider two retirees who both experience the same average annual return of 6% over 10 years but in reverse sequence:

Retiree A (Good Early Returns): +20%, +10%, +8%, +5%, +2%, -2%, -3%, -5%, -10%, -12%
Retiree B (Poor Early Returns): -12%, -10%, -5%, -3%, -2%, +2%, +5%, +8%, +10%, +20%

Both experience the same average return, but Retiree A's portfolio will last significantly longer due to positive returns in the critical early years when the portfolio balance is highest.

Protection Strategies:

  1. Create a retirement income buffer: Maintain 1-2 years of planned withdrawals in cash or very short-term investments, insulating immediate income needs from market volatility.
  2. Build a retirement income floor: Secure guaranteed income sources (Social Security, pensions, annuities) to cover essential expenses, allowing you to take appropriate risk with the remainder of your portfolio.
  3. Implement a bucket strategy: Organize investments into short-term (1-3 years), mid-term (4-10 years), and long-term (10+ years) buckets, aligning investment risk with time horizon.
  4. Practice dynamic withdrawal strategies: Adjust withdrawal amounts based on market performance, reducing withdrawals during market downturns to preserve capital.
  5. Consider downside protection vehicles: Certain financial products offer downside protection while allowing participation in market gains, including:
    • Fixed index annuities
    • Buffered ETFs
    • Structured notes
    • Options-based protection strategies

Remember the Missing Rallies: Market timing is particularly dangerous because the market's best days often closely follow its worst days. An analysis of S&P 500 returns from 2003-2023 shows that missing just the 10 best days during that 20-year period would have reduced a buy-and-hold investor's returns by more than half.

Focus on the Consistency of Returns

When evaluating investment options for retirement, consistency of returns often matters more than maximizing average returns. A portfolio with lower volatility and fewer severe drawdowns typically provides more reliable retirement income, even if its long-term average return is somewhat lower.

The Mathematics of Recovery

Market losses require disproportionately larger gains to recover:

Loss Gain Required to Recover
10% 11.1%
20% 25%
30% 42.9%
40% 66.7%
50% 100%

This asymmetry is particularly problematic during retirement when withdrawals are occurring simultaneously, as withdrawals from a depressed portfolio effectively "lock in" losses.

Measuring Consistency

Several metrics can help evaluate investment consistency:

  • Standard deviation: Measures the volatility or dispersion of returns
  • Maximum drawdown: The largest peak-to-trough decline in an investment's value
  • Sharpe ratio: Evaluates risk-adjusted returns
  • Sortino ratio: Focuses specifically on downside deviation
  • Capture ratios: Measure participation in up and down markets relative to a benchmark

When comparing investment options, look beyond simple average return figures to examine these consistency metrics. For retirement portfolios, an investment with lower upside potential but significantly reduced downside risk may prove more valuable than one with higher average returns but greater volatility.

Expert Insight: Consider the downside-upside capture ratio as a key metric. Ideally, retirement investments should capture 70-80% of market gains during bull markets while only experiencing 50-60% of market losses during downturns.

Create an Investment Formula

Successful retirement investing benefits greatly from a systematic approach that removes emotion from decision-making. Creating a personal investment formula – essentially a written investment policy statement – provides discipline and clarity during market turbulence.

Components of an Effective Investment Formula:

  1. Clear investment objectives: Define what you're trying to achieve with your investments in specific, measurable terms:
    • Income generation goals
    • Growth targets
    • Capital preservation priorities
  2. Strategic asset allocation: Establish target percentages for each asset class based on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and income needs:
    • Stocks (domestic, international, emerging markets)
    • Bonds (government, corporate, municipal)
    • Cash equivalents
    • Alternative assets (real estate, commodities, etc.)
  3. Rebalancing rules: Define specific triggers for portfolio rebalancing:
    • Time-based (quarterly, annually)
    • Threshold-based (when allocations drift by specific percentages)
  4. Investment selection criteria: Establish standards for including specific investments:
    • Cost parameters (expense ratios, fees)
    • Performance benchmarks
    • Risk metrics
    • Minimum track record requirements
  5. Withdrawal strategy: Document your approach to generating retirement income:
    • Initial withdrawal percentage
    • Withdrawal adjustment rules
    • Tax efficiency considerations
Sample Investment Formula for a Moderate-Risk Retiree

Objectives: Generate inflation-adjusted annual income of $60,000 while preserving principal in real terms over a 30-year retirement horizon.

Strategic Asset Allocation:

  • 40% U.S. Large-Cap Stocks
  • 10% U.S. Small/Mid-Cap Stocks
  • 15% International Developed Stocks
  • 5% Emerging Market Stocks
  • 20% Investment-Grade Bonds
  • 5% High-Yield Bonds
  • 5% REITs
  • 0% Commodities

Rebalancing Rules: Rebalance annually on retirement anniversary date, or when any asset class drifts more than 5 percentage points from target.

Investment Selection Criteria: Favor low-cost index funds and ETFs with expense ratios below 0.25% for core positions. Active funds considered only for specialized asset classes where they have demonstrated consistent outperformance net of fees.

Withdrawal Strategy: Initial withdrawal of 4% of portfolio value, adjusted annually for inflation. In years following negative portfolio returns, limit inflation adjustment to 2% maximum.

Reasons Why You Should Use an Investment Formula

  • Removes emotion from decision-making: Prevents panic selling during downturns and FOMO buying during bull markets
  • Provides clarity during volatility: Gives you specific actions to take when markets become turbulent
  • Creates accountability: Documented strategy allows for objective evaluation of results
  • Forces disciplined rebalancing: Systematically "buys low and sells high" through regular rebalancing
  • Facilitates better advisor relationships: Clearly communicates your expectations and requirements

Review and update your investment formula annually or after significant life changes (health issues, inheritance, etc.), but avoid frequent changes based solely on market movements or short-term performance.

What to Do Before Investing

Before deploying retirement assets into the market, several preparatory steps can significantly improve your chances of long-term success and reduce the likelihood of costly mistakes.

Essential Pre-Investment Steps:

  1. Establish an emergency fund: Before investing retirement funds, ensure you have 3-6 months of living expenses in highly liquid, safe investments. For retirees, this should typically be expanded to 12-18 months of expenses to prevent forced liquidation of investments during market downturns.
  2. Assess your risk tolerance: Use validated assessment tools to identify your true psychological comfort with investment volatility. Research shows that many investors overestimate their risk tolerance during bull markets, leading to panic selling when corrections occur.
  3. Determine your risk capacity: Beyond psychological comfort, objectively evaluate how much risk you can afford to take based on:
    • Time horizon
    • Income stability
    • Alternative income sources
    • Liquidity needs
  4. Inventory other retirement resources: Before determining an investment strategy, catalog all available retirement assets and income sources:
    • Social Security benefits
    • Pension payments
    • Annuity contracts
    • Real estate assets
    • Business interests
    • Potential inheritance
  5. Optimize account locations: Determine which investments belong in which account types to maximize tax efficiency:
    • Tax-deferred accounts: Income-producing investments, REITs
    • Roth accounts: Highest growth potential investments
    • Taxable accounts: Tax-efficient investments, municipal bonds
  6. Develop an investment philosophy: Articulate your core beliefs about markets and investing:
    • Active vs. passive management
    • Value vs. growth orientation
    • Domestic vs. global focus
    • Fundamental vs. technical analysis

Example of Possible Mutual Fund Investments

Below is a sample allocation for a moderate-risk retirement portfolio using broadly diversified funds:

Fund Category Allocation Investment Objectives
U.S. Total Market Index Fund 35% Long-term growth, dividend income
International Developed Markets Index Fund 15% Geographic diversification, growth
Emerging Markets Index Fund 5% Higher growth potential, inflation hedge
Core Bond Fund 20% Income, stability, deflation hedge
Short-Term Corporate Bond Fund 10% Income, lower interest rate sensitivity
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Fund 5% Inflation protection, government backing
Real Estate Investment Trust Fund 5% Income, inflation hedge, diversification
Money Market Fund 5% Cash reserves, liquidity

This allocation is merely illustrative; your personal allocation should reflect your specific circumstances, risk tolerance, and objectives. Many investors benefit from professional guidance in constructing portfolios aligned with their retirement income needs.

Create a Safety Net for Your Investment Plan

Building multiple layers of protection into your retirement plan can help insulate you from various financial risks and create a more resilient strategy. A comprehensive safety net includes diversification across multiple dimensions and specific protective mechanisms.

Key Safety Net Components:

  1. Multiple income streams: Develop diverse income sources with different risk characteristics:
    • Social Security (government guaranteed, inflation-adjusted)
    • Pensions (reliable but typically fixed)
    • Annuities (contractually guaranteed by insurance companies)
    • Dividend-producing investments
    • Interest from bonds and CDs
    • Rental income from real estate
    • Part-time work or consulting
  2. Liquidity tiers: Structure assets into liquidity "buckets" that align with when you'll need the funds:
    • Tier 1: Cash and cash equivalents (1-2 years of expenses)
    • Tier 2: Short-term, high-quality fixed income (2-5 years of expenses)
    • Tier 3: Core investment portfolio (5+ years)
  3. Insurance protections: Incorporate appropriate insurance coverage to mitigate specific risks:
    • Medicare plus supplemental health insurance
    • Long-term care insurance or hybrid policies
    • Life insurance (if supporting dependents)
    • Property and casualty insurance
    • Umbrella liability coverage
  4. Diversification across investment dimensions: Go beyond simply holding different asset classes:
    • Geographic diversification (U.S., international developed, emerging markets)
    • Manager diversification (avoid concentration with a single fund company)
    • Style diversification (value, growth, quality)
    • Size diversification (large cap, mid cap, small cap)
    • Time diversification (laddered bonds, staggered annuity purchases)
  5. Defensive strategies: Consider incorporating specific defensive portfolio elements:
    • Low-volatility equity funds
    • Minimum volatility ETFs
    • Defined outcome ETFs with downside buffers
    • Fixed indexed annuities
    • Trend-following strategies

Get to Know Your Portfolio the Way Wealthy People Know About Theirs

The most successful retirees develop a detailed understanding of their investments rather than simply delegating completely. This doesn't mean micromanaging or trading frequently, but rather gaining sufficient knowledge to:

  • Ask informed questions of advisors
  • Understand the rationale behind each investment
  • Recognize when changes may be appropriate
  • Maintain confidence during market volatility
  • Avoid costly mistakes driven by knowledge gaps

Steps in Understanding Your Risk Tolerance

Risk tolerance comprises both emotional capacity for volatility and financial capacity to withstand temporary losses. To properly assess your risk tolerance:

  1. Complete formal risk assessment tools: Use validated questionnaires that measure both psychological comfort with risk and financial capacity to bear risk.
  2. Review past behavior during market downturns: Your actual actions during previous market corrections provide valuable insight into your true risk tolerance.
  3. Translate risk concepts into dollar terms: Rather than abstract percentages, calculate what a 20% market decline would mean in actual dollars to better grasp emotional impact.
  4. Consider your entire financial picture: Risk tolerance should be evaluated within the context of guaranteed income sources, health status, and legacy goals.
  5. Reassess periodically: Risk tolerance isn't static – it evolves with age, wealth, and life circumstances, necessitating regular reassessment.

Key Insight: Research consistently shows that most investors overestimate their risk tolerance during bull markets and underestimate it during bear markets. An objective assessment administered by a third party often provides a more accurate gauge.

Chapter Five: Common Financial Planning Issues

Financial Planning is Broken

The traditional financial planning model has significant structural flaws that often lead to suboptimal outcomes for retirees. Understanding these limitations is essential for developing a more effective approach to retirement planning.

Key Problems with Conventional Financial Planning:

  1. Product-centric rather than client-centric: Many financial professionals are primarily compensated for product sales rather than planning outcomes, creating inherent conflicts of interest.
  2. Siloed advice: Retirement planning often involves disconnected specialists (investment advisors, insurance agents, tax preparers, estate attorneys) who rarely coordinate effectively.
  3. Unclear fiduciary responsibility: Different financial professionals operate under different standards of care, with only some legally required to put client interests first.
  4. Overemphasis on investments: Many plans focus excessively on investment performance while neglecting critical areas like tax planning, healthcare funding, and risk management.
  5. Static rather than dynamic: Traditional plans typically represent a point-in-time analysis rather than an adaptive strategy that evolves with changing circumstances.
  6. Inadequate risk assessment: Most plans fail to thoroughly assess and address the full spectrum of retirement risks.

The fiduciary landscape continues to evolve. The Department of Labor released its "Retirement Security Rule" in April 2024, expanding the definition of who qualifies as a fiduciary when providing investment advice for retirement accounts. However, the implementation has faced legal challenges, creating continued uncertainty about advisor standards.

Concerning Research Finding: According to a 2024 survey, 65% of retirement investors mistakenly believe all financial advisors are legally required to act in their best interest, highlighting the confusion around fiduciary standards.

The Impact on Retirement Outcomes

These systemic issues have tangible consequences for retirees:

  • Excessive fees that erode long-term returns
  • Inappropriate product recommendations based on commission incentives
  • Inadequate protection against retirement risks
  • Missed tax planning opportunities
  • Uncoordinated estate and legacy planning
  • Failure to adapt strategies as circumstances change

A comprehensive survey of retirement confidence found that only 33% of retirees who worked with traditional financial advisors felt "very confident" about having enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement, compared to 57% who worked with fiduciary advisors using a comprehensive planning approach.

How the Advance Planning Approach Works

A more effective approach to retirement planning incorporates several key principles that address the limitations of traditional financial planning. This advanced planning methodology focuses on integration, client-centricity, and comprehensive risk management.

Core Elements of Advanced Planning:

  1. Comprehensive integration: Advanced planning breaks down silos between different aspects of financial planning:
    • Investment management coordinated with tax planning
    • Estate planning aligned with charitable and legacy goals
    • Risk management strategies incorporated into income planning
    • Healthcare funding integrated with longevity planning
  2. True fiduciary relationship: The advisor commits to:
    • Act solely in the client's best interest
    • Provide full transparency on all fees and compensation
    • Disclose and manage all potential conflicts of interest
    • Maintain appropriate professional certifications and continuing education
  3. Personalized risk assessment: Rather than generic risk tolerance questionnaires, advanced planning incorporates:
    • Detailed analysis of specific retirement risks
    • Quantified assessment of risk capacity
    • Consideration of personal values and priorities
    • Customized protection strategies for identified vulnerabilities
  4. Tax-efficient withdrawal strategy: Advanced planning develops a multi-year tax strategy that:
    • Optimizes the sequence of withdrawals from different account types
    • Strategically uses tax-loss harvesting and gain recognition
    • Incorporates Roth conversion opportunities
    • Manages tax brackets proactively across retirement years
    • Coordinates with charitable giving strategies
  5. Dynamic adaptation: The plan evolves through:
    • Regular review meetings beyond simple portfolio performance
    • Systematic reassessment of changing goals and circumstances
    • Adjustment for legislative and regulatory changes
    • Incorporation of new planning techniques and strategies

Implementation Process

The advanced planning process typically follows these steps:

  1. Discovery: Comprehensive data gathering beyond financial information, including values, priorities, concerns, and goals
  2. Analysis: Thorough examination of current situation, identification of gaps and opportunities, and evaluation of various planning scenarios
  3. Strategy development: Creation of integrated recommendations addressing all aspects of retirement security
  4. Implementation: Coordinated execution of recommendations with clear accountability and timelines
  5. Monitoring and adaptation: Ongoing oversight, regular progress reviews, and strategy adjustments as needed

Value Proposition: Research by Vanguard and Morningstar suggests that comprehensive financial planning using a fiduciary approach can add 1.5% to 3% in net annual returns through improved tax efficiency, appropriate risk management, behavioral coaching, and expense optimization.

This advanced planning approach emphasizes planning over products, strategic thinking over tactical recommendations, and client outcomes over advisor compensation. The resulting retirement plan becomes a dynamic roadmap rather than a static document, adapting to changes in personal circumstances, market conditions, and regulatory environments.

Invest to Enjoy your Golden Age

The ultimate purpose of retirement planning extends far beyond financial metrics. While prudent financial management is essential, it serves a deeper goal: enabling you to live a fulfilling, purposeful, and comfortable life during your retirement years.

Aligning Financial Decisions with Life Goals

Effective retirement planning begins with clarity about what truly matters to you. Research consistently shows that retiree satisfaction correlates more strongly with how money is used than with how much money is accumulated.

Common priorities that drive retirement satisfaction include:

  • Health and wellness: Resources for maintaining physical and mental well-being
  • Relationships: Ability to spend quality time with family and friends
  • Purpose: Opportunities to contribute through volunteering, mentoring, or continued work
  • Growth: Resources for continued learning and personal development
  • Experiences: Travel, hobbies, and new adventures
  • Legacy: Making a difference for family or causes you care about

Your financial strategy should be purposefully designed to support these priorities rather than treating wealth accumulation as an end in itself.

The Changing Nature of Retirement

The concept of retirement continues to evolve. The traditional model of an abrupt transition from full-time work to full-time leisure is giving way to more flexible approaches:

  • Phased retirement: Gradually reducing work hours over several years
  • Encore careers: Starting new, often purpose-driven work in retirement
  • "Pretirement": Working part-time before full retirement
  • Sabbaticals: Taking extended breaks throughout later working years
  • Portfolio lifestyles: Blending work, volunteering, learning, and leisure

These evolving models require more flexible financial strategies that can adapt to changing income patterns and priorities.

Research-Based Keys to Retirement Well-Being

Longitudinal studies of retiree satisfaction have identified several factors that consistently contribute to well-being:

  1. Financial security (not wealth): Having reliable income that covers essential needs plus some discretionary spending
  2. Strong social connections: Regular, meaningful interaction with family, friends, and community
  3. Physical activity: Regular exercise appropriate to ability level
  4. Mental stimulation: Ongoing learning and cognitive challenges
  5. Sense of purpose: Feeling that your life continues to have meaning and impact

Effective retirement planning allocates resources to support all these dimensions of well-being, not just financial security.

Insightful Research: A major study found that retirees who had clear purposes for their money reported 97% greater satisfaction with their retirement than those who focused solely on accumulation without specific goals for how their money would enhance their lives.

Financial Actions to Support Your Golden Age

Specific financial strategies that can help you maximize enjoyment of your retirement years include:

  • Budgeting for joy: Explicitly allocate funds for activities that bring happiness and fulfillment
  • Experience accounts: Create dedicated savings for meaningful experiences rather than material possessions
  • Health investment: Prioritize spending on preventive care, fitness, and wellness
  • Social connection funding: Budget for activities that strengthen relationships (travel to visit family, entertainment with friends)
  • Legacy planning: Create mechanisms to support causes or people you care about
  • Flexibility reserves: Maintain some financial flexibility to pursue unexpected opportunities

By thoughtfully aligning your financial resources with your deepest values and priorities, you can create a retirement that truly represents the golden age of your life – a time of purpose, connection, growth, and joy.

Remember that retirement success is ultimately measured not by the size of your portfolio, but by the richness of the life your resources enable you to live.

Conclusion

As we've explored throughout this book, retirement planning in 2025 requires a comprehensive approach that addresses numerous interconnected challenges and opportunities. Understanding your personal "Financial Speed" – the rate at which your assets need to grow and the pace at which they should be consumed – is essential for creating a sustainable retirement strategy.

The retirement landscape continues to evolve rapidly. The shifting responsibility from employers and government programs to individuals makes personal planning more critical than ever. Demographic trends, including the mass retirement of Baby Boomers with 4.2 million Americans turning 65 in 2025 alone, are reshaping social systems and economic realities.

Key takeaways from our exploration include:

  • The importance of creating diverse income streams with different risk characteristics and tax treatments
  • The need for protection against multiple retirement risks, including longevity, inflation, healthcare costs, and market volatility
  • The value of disciplined investment approaches that focus on consistency rather than simply maximizing returns
  • The benefits of integrated planning that coordinates investment, tax, insurance, and estate strategies
  • The critical role of flexibility in adapting to changing personal circumstances and external conditions

Perhaps most importantly, we've emphasized that financial planning serves a deeper purpose beyond numbers and calculations. Effective retirement planning creates the foundation for a meaningful, purposeful life in your retirement years – one filled with the people, activities, and contributions that matter most to you.

As you implement the strategies discussed in this book, remember that retirement planning is not a one-time event but an ongoing process. Regular review and adjustment of your plan, ideally with the guidance of qualified professionals, will help ensure that your strategy remains aligned with your changing goals and circumstances.

Your retirement journey is uniquely yours. By applying the principles and strategies outlined in this book, you can develop a personalized approach to retirement that reflects your values, addresses your specific concerns, and supports your vision of an ideal future.

Here's to your financial security and a truly golden retirement!

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Investment advisory services offered through Retirement Wealth Advisors, LLC (RWA), a registered investment advisor. RWA and Take Point Wealth are independent of each other. Insurance products and services are not offered through RWA but are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed agents. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

This information is designed to provide general information on the subjects covered, it is not, however, intended to provide specific legal or tax advice and cannot be used to avoid tax penalties or to promote, market, or recommend any tax plan or arrangement. Please note that Erick Arnett Advisor, Take Point Wealth Management, and their affiliates do not give legal or tax advice. You are encouraged to consult your tax advisor or attorney.

Annuity guarantees rely on the financial strength and claims-paying ability of the issuing insurer. Any references to protection benefits or lifetime income generally refer to fixed insurance products. They do not refer, in any way to securities or investment advisory products or services. Fixed Insurance and Annuity product guarantees are subject to the claims‐paying ability of the issuing company and are not offered by Take Point Wealth Management.

Registered Investment Advisors and Investment Advisor Representatives act as fiduciaries for all of our investment management clients. We have an obligation to act in the best interests of our clients and to make full disclosure of any conflicts of interests. Please refer to our firm brochure, the ADV 2A item 4, for additional information.

Numbers and statistics shown on page are representative only and are subject to change without notice. All figures should be checked for accuracy if it is a deciding factor in your decision to work with any financial advisor.

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